FRESH PASTA IS ALWAYS A GOOD IDEA

Fresh pasta: a sales boom only in winter? This culinary staple becomes a favorite souvenir for tourists

Tuidi's analysis highlights regional trends and the factors shaping the market. From Northern to Southern Italy, tourism, geographic location, and promotions are redefining consumer preferences.

Fresh pasta, a symbol of Italy's culinary tradition, is typically associated with the winter season. However, data we recently gathered through AI-powered models show that the sales dynamics of this product are influenced by multiple factors, including seasonality, geographic location, and tourism. The data presented is based on the analysis of specific retail locations, but different results could emerge when examining other contexts, highlighting the importance of tailored predictive models.

A detailed analysis of sales across various locations in both Northern and Southern Italy confirms that, on average, fresh pasta sales increase by 28% in the North and 30% in the South during the winter months, compared to the other three seasons. The week leading up to Christmas and New Year's sees a significant spike: sales in the North rise by 65%, while the South experiences an impressive 188% increase.

Interestingly, sales of fresh pasta even increase by 91% in the summer, as it becomes a popular souvenir to bring home from vacations.

However, it's important not to jump to conclusions. Our internal data reveal cases where fresh pasta also performs well during the summer. For instance, we analyzed two supermarkets in Puglia: one in Alberobello, a well-known tourist destination, and the other in Bari, a residential area. The results were striking: during the summer, the supermarket in Alberobello saw a 91% increase in sales, while the Bari store, which caters mostly to locals with fewer tourists, showed no such growth. This surge in Alberobello is likely due to the influx of foreign tourists, who purchase fresh pasta as a vacation souvenir.

Promotions, seasonality, and weather conditions are all factors that affect sales.

These findings highlight the importance of understanding the unique characteristics of each market to better meet consumer needs, both domestic and international. Promotional strategies also play a significant role: for example, a promotion on ready-made sauces can boost fresh pasta sales by 11%, illustrating how both external and internal factors—like weather, seasonality, and promotions—can be forecast in advance to guide future sales strategies. While not all products are influenced daily by external factors or the behavior of other products, leveraging an AI algorithm ensures that even the more complex cases are not overlooked.

"In the dynamic and competitive landscape of large-scale retail, anticipating market trends is crucial to understanding how they impact sales," says Andrea Paparella, our Commercial Director. "Knowing the reasons behind the performance of individual products is key not only for managing stock but also for optimizing assortments. Currently, standard planogram management doesn’t account for future demand fluctuations and can lead to assortments that no longer align with market needs. AI solves this problem by predicting future sales, offering insights on what to stock, and ensuring that even fresh pasta is available in the right quantities during off-peak periods for most stores."

Enter Delphi, which allows for proactive assortment management by predicting what will happen in each store.

To this end, we developed Delphi, an innovative platform that uses prescriptive AI models to automate in-store management.

"If I can accurately predict daily sales, I can decide how to position products in the market in terms of offerings and shelf space," says Andrea. "The goal is twofold: to offer customers what they want to ensure their satisfaction, and to avoid overstocking, thereby optimizing stock management."